Showing posts with label Goodbye Jean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Goodbye Jean. Show all posts

Sunday, April 3, 2016

#SuperTrader Post: Cards JayP's Mother Didn't Throw Out

A fairly new blogger around the card world is Diamondbacks fan Jay P., the proprietor of Cards My Mother Didn't Throw Out. Jay P. has quickly integrated into the trading world, as evidenced by the fact that he joined in the SuperTrader group that JayBarkerFan put together.  

Even before joining that group, Jay P had sent me a trade package. So, this is the second time in 2016 that I get to feature a few cards from Jay P. But, since I used up the Arizona music angle the last time, well, y'all are stuck with my writing and seeing where it leads today.

Let's go to the cards and see where the stream of consciousness leads.



Turner Ward was a hotshot prospect in the Indians system after he was traded there by the Yankees along with Joel (Mule) Skinner for Mel Hall. Ward then went to Toronto for 1991 in another trade (with Tom Candiotti in exchange for Denis Boucher, Glenallen Hill, Mark Whiten, and that ever popular trade ingredient called cash). He stayed in Milwaukee for three seasons and really did not impress -- .233/.328/.362 in 655 plate appearances -- so the Brewers released him. 

Ward went to Pittsburgh for parts of three seasons thereafter before getting released two-thirds of the way through 1999. He hooked on with the D-Backs -- creating a tie between CMMDTO and Off Hiatus -- for 85 plate appearances over two seasons. He finished his career with 17 plate appearances for the Phillies in 2001. 

Thereafter, Ward eventually went into coaching. He got to return to where he grew up and attended college -- Mobile, Alabama -- to manage for a couple of seasons in 2011 and 2012 with the Mobile BayBears. He moved up to the majors to be a hitting instructor with the Diamondbacks for three seasons. He's now the Dodgers hitting instructor.

I wonder why so many less-than-great hitters end up as hitting coaches. Shouldn't a team want Barry Bonds rather than Turner Ward?



I see Jesse Orosco with the sun shining on him from the Pinnacle logo, and, for whatever reason, the first thing that came to mind was "The Old Man" since he stayed in the major leagues until he was 46 years old in 2003.  

So, enjoy Charlton Heston reading Ernest Hemingway's "The Old Man and the Sea." All 2 hours and 22 minutes of it.



Heston's voice is compelling. The video version, though, is not.


Jimmy Dean sausages are very tasty sausages. 

When I think of Jimmy Dean, though, I don't necessarily think of sausages. You see, Jimmy Dean was a real country music singer and variety show host in the early 1960s. He founded the Jimmy Dean Foods in the late 1960s, and he turned it into a very successful company before selling it to Sara Lee in 1984 for $80 million.



That's a really nice return on investment for a guy who sang one of those great story songs of the early 1960s about a giant of a miner named Big Bad John.


When I think of Gold Rush, I think of college. Yup -- another Nashville story. About three or four blocks from Vanderbilt's campus, there is a bar/restaurant called The Gold Rush. I know for a fact that I stepped foot in that bar perhaps once or twice during my entire time in Nashville. I really didn't drink that much in college, in large part due to the fact that I needed to keep my money for other pursuits -- frivolous things like food and books.

Anyway, it's not a bad place -- it is just a dive bar where people go to eat a little bit, smoke cigarettes, and watch a scuzzy rock show. If I lived near Vanderbilt today, I'd probably frequent the place (other than the smoking part, it sounds like my kind of bar, to be honest). In college -- wow, no chance.


Not a bad looking card generally. It's odd how the state of the baseball card world was all about those holograms for Upper Deck. As soon as the "chrome" technology came about, though, the hologram was set aside in the same way that that "Sportflics" 3D "technology" went away after the mid-to-late 1980s.

Even stranger is the fact that it appears that Upper Deck whiffed on its first attempt to register its use of the hologram logos that it used on the back of the cards. You remember those home plates, stars, diamonds, and racing flags? Well, their attorneys and Upper Deck tried to go a bit cheap and register those logos all at once under one trademark application. The application was denied for trying to register "an idea or concept, rather than a single mark." I can only imagine that Upper Deck "asked" its lawyers to file a number of other applications at a reduced rate (read as: file it right this time and we won't sue you to get our wasted money back for your first effort) going forward.


All three of these guys were traded by Milwaukee over the past eight months. The Gomez trade really restocked the farm system. The Ramirez trade brought over Yhonathan Barrios, who is now on the 15-day disabled list thanks to an unspecified shoulder injury. 

The Segura trade -- with the Diamondbacks -- was a real head scratcher among people who employ advanced statistical analysis from the Arizona side of the equation. Thankfully, there are still Dave Stewart-types in baseball who think advanced statistical analysis is something people have to "believe in" like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny. Without folks like old Dave, who will focus on results caused by an overly high BABIP for half a season in 2013 and ignore the reality from 2014 and 2015? 


To be clear, I hope Segura does well for Arizona. Just not as well as Orlando Arcia does for Milwaukee.


And finally, there was this Pacific 2000 "Diamond Leaders" card of Jeff Cirillo, Jeromy Burnitz, Marquis Grissom, and Hideo Nomo. 

Since these guys were the team leaders in 1999, I think of Prince. Of course.


JayP, thanks again for the great cards. Hopefully my rambling did not dissuade you from sending more cards my way!

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Goodbye and Good Luck to you, Jean Segura

It all started innocently enough. 


As a kid, it was easy enough to say -- at least in theory -- that I wanted to collect everything. Sure, being a kid, I really didn't realize what that meant, but I legitimately thought I could try over the course of my life to collect it all.

When I got back into collecting about two years ago, I tried to approach collecting in the same way. Soon after that, I realized how impossible trying to do that would be -- what with trying to make up for 25 years of not collecting, all the 1/1 cards issued, all the player collectors out there who would fight me tooth and nail for their guys' cards, and, well, the fact that I did not win the PowerBall three or four times before getting back into collecting.


Shortly after that, I decided that I'd try to collect only Brewers. And why not? After all, that's my team and it's been my team since 1978 -- the first year I truly remember paying attention to baseball as a six-year-old little boy.

I'm an ambitious sort, so I like to set goals -- both short term and long term. I view collecting as many Brewers cards as I can part of an ambitious long-term collecting goal. I know I'll never "complete" the team sets -- once again, I'm not the only Brewers collector out there, I'm not the only one trying to get the printing plates and superfractors and all that, and I still haven't won the PowerBall even one time.


Pretty much as soon as I decided to write a blog, then, I started thinking about player collections. Being an obsessive, I wanted a decent number of PCs over the entirety of Brewers history so long as I had a good basis for including a player as a PC. I look at statistics, I thought about my favorite players when I was a kid, and I thought about my interactions with many of the players when I was a tween/teen chasing autographs before and after Brewers games.


Then, I looked at the 2014 team. I choose a few guys who had been with the team for a decent amount of time -- Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun. I chose a couple of guys that had arrived more recently but still had a pretty decent amount of service time: Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy.

And, I wanted a younger player -- one I could start on now and watch develop and accumulate a collection over his career.  For that spot, I chose Jean Segura.



Strangely, for me, I chose Segura without looking at his underlying statistics. I say that is strange because I've been a big fan of the statistical, sabermetric approach to baseball since finding Bill James's Baseball Abstracts in my local library when I was about 14. I learned more math from Bill James than I did from my algebra class, I'm pretty sure.

Yet, with Segura, I ignored the warning signs. He started out like a house of fire in 2013 -- almost entirely based around a very lucky BABIP in the first two months of the season. In the first half of 2013, he slashed at .325/.363/.487 -- with a batting average on balls in play at an unsustainable level of .349. He didn't walk enough: only 25 walks in 620 plate appearances. But, he was young, right? He could improve, right?


Sure, he could improve. But he didn't. He suffered through a nightmare season in 2014, slashing at .246/.289/.324 -- but needing a .319/.364/.389 September to bring his yearly totals up to only mildly horrible. Even worse, his 9-month-old son Janniel died suddenly from an illness in July. He was welcomed back to the team a week later by Brewers and Nationals fans giving him a standing ovation and Stephen Strasburg giving him a bit of time to compose himself and appreciate the support, but there was no way to know how much that loss hurt him and took his attention away from baseball -- as it had to have done.


2015 became an extremely important season for Segura. He needed to show that he was closer to the player of 2013 over 2014. He really did not do that, hitting .257/.281/.336 and walking just 13 times in 584 plate appearances

In other words, we're talking about a guy who might be regressing rather than developing. We're talking about a player who was not getting better and, in fact, he was getting worse. His WAR scores from Baseball Reference from 2013 to 2015: 4.0, 0.6, -0.0.  That's not a guy who is helping your team.

 

This is especially true when you have the number 6 prospect in all of baseball -- Orlando Arcia -- playing your same position and rising to Triple-A after putting up a .307/.347/.453 slash line at the age of twenty in Double-A.

So, when news of Jean Segura's trade came across the wires yesterday, it was not a surprise. In fact, perhaps the biggest surprise is that it took this long to find a suitable trade partner.





For my part, I've decided that I'm not going to keep Segura as a player collection. This has been coming for a while. I'd pretty much decided that as soon as Segura was gone from Milwaukee that he would be gone from being a player collection.

So, all these cards are great and all, but from now on, he's just another Brewer.




What did the Brewers get for Segura? A mid-rotation starting pitcher in Chase Anderson, a clearly-in-decline Aaron Hill (who is in the last year of his contract) to pair with Scooter Gennett, and Isan Diaz, a super young shortstop/second baseman who was the D-Backs second round pick in 2014. Diaz is a long ways away, but he showed good pop, decent speed, and a good bat in the Pioneer League last year (312 plate appearances, 13 HR, 12 SB/7 CS, .360/.436/.640) at the age of 19. Oh, and $5.5 million to cover Hill's salary.

All in all, this is probably a good move for both teams. The Brewers get rid of Segura to help clear the way for Orlando Arcia, they get one year of a second base platoon before finding something better or hoping for something to emerge, and they get a starter to help bear the load in the rotation while waiting for Josh Hader and others to emerge from the minor leagues -- not to mention the high-end potential that Diaz has.

The Diamondbacks get Tyler Wagner along with Segura. Wagner started for Milwaukee three times last year and got lit up, but he won the Double-A Southern League ERA title last year. Fangraphs said last year that Wagner is likely a "5th starter . . . as it's starting to look like Wagner is the sneaky guy that holds down a rotation spot for five years before anyone notices."


I really do hope that both Wagner and Segura have great success for the Diamondbacks all year except against Milwaukee. But, that hope for success for them doesn't mean that Segura has to remain a player collection for me.


So goodbye, Jean.  Thanks for the reminder to trust performance gaps that I can see with my own eyes before anointing someone else as a PC.